Keeping Your Eye on the Ball

North/South had just come off a bad board where they'd bid an aggressive game that was down due to very unlucky distribution. Since most had stopped short of game it was a near bottom for the pair. South was therefore very relieved to see this dummy come down.

	10 8 6 K 7 5 K Q 6 3 10 9 4
None Vul	K Q J 9 7 3 Q J A 4 A J 6

West Pass All Pass

North 2

East Pass

South 1 4

Trick 1. W

Lead 7

2nd 4

3rd K

4th ?

The declaring side had a simple auction to 4, South opened 1 and after partner raised him to 2 he had an easy 4 re-bid. Upon receiving the lead of the 7 he quickly counted 3 losers - one spade, one heart and one club. After what had happened on the previous board this came as a big relief, so after thanking his partner he called for a low club. East played the K which declarer covered with his ace. This was quickly followed with the K and his card had barely touched the table before he realized that his elation at being in a seemingly cold contract had caused him to lose focus and that he had made a huge mistake.

Here is what happened next; West covered the K with the ace. West then played the 2 which their partner won with the Q. Another small club from East was ruffed by West and with the A still to lose the contract was down one. So what is the proper way to play this? That depends on what you believe West's club holding to be. Here are the four scenarios you need to consider:

1) If the lead is top of nothing or possibly MUD (picture the 753 or the 872) then it doesn't really matter what you do - but rising with your A is probably best.

2) If the lead is low from Q87 then you need to rise with your A to prevent the possibility of losing a second trick in clubs.

3) If it is a singleton you need to rise with your A as well. Not only that but you also need to hope that West started with both missing aces or East will still be able to give him a ruff.

4) If it's a doubleton ( 75, 73 or 72) you need to duck the first trick. If East continues clubs you can win it (if East leads a low club at trick two you really need to be brave and play the J not the ace) and as long as West has the A he won't have another club to play back to his partner like he has when you don't duck the first trick. You're not out of danger yet though, as East might have the A and West might be able to play a low heart to it and still get a ruff.

While the recommended play on three of these four possibilities is to rise with the ace, the lead of the 7 certainly rates to be the top of a doubleton. As it turned out playing for Option 4 would have in fact enabled Declarer to make his contract. It's interesting to note that after the lead of a club by West from either a singleton or doubleton you need to guess correctly which of these it is and even then you only have a 25% chance (both missing aces need to be with West) to make what looks like such a cold contract.

Is there possibly a better line? There is another option that eliminates the worry of any of these club distributions. If declarer wins the opening trick and immediately plays three rounds of diamonds discarding a club from hand on the third round it will greatly increase their chances. This can only lose when diamonds split 5-2 (or worse) and even then there are some 5-2 splits that can still be overcome. This is a huge improvement over a 25% chance!

The main lesson to be learned here is take that extra few moments and consider "What can go wrong?". In this example Declarer needed to realize there was a potential for a defensive ruff and think of how best to overcome this.

The full deal:

	10 8 6 K 7 5 K Q 6 3 10 9 4
A 5 4 2 A 10 6 J 10 8 7 7 2		— 9 8 4 3 2 9 5 2 K Q 8 5 3
	K Q J 9 7 3 Q J A 4 A J 6

One other interesting note. The play of the K at trick one by East is a very interesting false card. The normal play for defenders is to play the lowest of touching honours, but by playing the king it may have contributed to Declarer making the mistake and playing for Option 2 from above.